2021 Draft Recap: Round One (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

<2021 Draft Recap: Round One (2022 Fantasy Baseball)>

Like the term's sleeper and breakout, bust can mean different things in Fantasy sports. For example, Trevor Story had an ADP 12.7 last season. He finished as the 56th overall player while still providing 24 home runs and 20 steals. Story wasn't a complete bust but he was definitely an underachiever based on expectations. Cody Bellinger was going in that same range with an ADP of 16.9 last season. He struggled to stay healthy coming off shoulder surgery and completely bottomed out, batting just .165 with 10 home runs. Bellinger very clearly was a bust last season but hurt your team exponentially more than Story. The point here is that not all busts in Fantasy baseball are created equally.

I've compiled a list below of players I believe are either overvalued at their current cost or have true bottom-out potential. Maybe there's a few who fit into both categories. I will point out that I was close to adding both Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber onto this list. It has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with injury risk. If you're addicted and already drafting (like I am), I suggest passing over those two names until we learn more. Ultimately, I decided not to add them because we just need more information. If both guys are throwing normally in spring without any issues, they'll shoot back up near the first round and rightfully so. We just don't know right now, and the risk keeps them off my board for the time being.

 Let's get into the rest.

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Marcus Semien "> Marcus Semien TEX • 2B • 10 BA.265R115HR45RBI102SB15ADP27.3 View Profile "> View Profile

You have to love a player who bets on himself and comes through. That was Marcus Semien last season. He was unreal, batting .265 with 45 home runs, 15 steals and 217 runs plus RBI. Semien finished as the seventh overall player in Roto and averaged 3.7 Fantasy points per game, tied for seventh best among all hitters. I'm happy he was able to turn that into a massive payday with the Rangers. With that being said, I am not happy with the landing spot. While we don't have enough data yet, Globe Life Field has played more neutral since opening in 2020, even leaning towards a pitcher's park. In 2021 it ranked 22nd in home run park factors.

On top of that Semien leaves the hitter-friendly AL East for the spacious AL West, which features his new ballpark, Seattle and Oakland, which all lean pitcher friendly. According to Statcast, Semien would have hit just 32 of his 45 home runs in Globe Life Field last season. Of course, Semien won't play all of his games in Arlington but it seemed like a notable stat regardless. On top of everything, he's entering a much worse lineup, which will undoubtedly lower his counting stats. I know what you might be thinking. "Well, he did it once before in the AL West." That's true. Semien finished as the 20th overall player back in 2019 while a member of the Oakland A's. However, his ADP was just 88.6 the following season. So far his ADP is up at 27.3 this offseason! It doesn't really make sense to me that Corey Seager is getting the Rangers treatment (70 ADP) while Semien isn't. I don't think he bottoms out, but I do think he's overvalued at his current cost.  

2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Marcus Semien and Chris Sale among Frank Stampfls Busts 1.0

Source:CBSSports.com

2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Marcus Semien and Chris Sale among Frank Stampfls Busts 1.0

2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Frank Stampfls Breakouts 1.0 sprinkled with former top prospects

Source:CBSSports.com

2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Frank Stampfls Breakouts 1.0 sprinkled with former top prospects

Way Too Early 2022 Mock Draft for Fantasy Football - Round 1 Breakdown

Source:RotoBaller

Way Too Early 2022 Mock Draft for Fantasy Football - Round 1 Breakdown

The United Fundraising League Announces New Modernized Fundraising Platform During The United Flag Football Leagues National Championship

Source:Yahoo Finance

The United Fundraising League Announces New Modernized Fundraising Platform During The United Flag Football Leagues National Championship